To the infinite and beyond: Airbus versus physics law
This new gazette is a collection of the reflections and works from the Airbus CGT Environment Commission, made of delegates, elected representatives and union members. This article is the second part following the gazette environment special edition (part 1), issued in May 2025.
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Second part : analysis and proposals
The CGT Airbus Environment Commission is a platform of exchanges and reflection, where the employees wishing to work together to propose ambitious and argued alternatives can unite their forces, facing the Airbus headlong rush strategy, based on the analysis of Airbus non financial reports, commitments (SBTi…) and communications and comparing these with the scientific data (IPCC aviation environmental impact assessment (shift project, ICCT, ISAE supaero, Stay grounded, Safe Landing)…
All the sources mentioned in this article are available at the bottom of this page.
A realistic strategy ? Is the Airbus storytelling compliant with the scientific reality ?
In its Global Market Forecast (GMF), Airbus is projecting that the fleet will double within the next 20 years (+3,6% of growth per year). In order to achieve this objective while respecting the greenhouse gases net zero emission target in 2050, Airbus emphasises the use of SAF (Sustainable Aircraft Fuel) and hydrogen.
For many observers, the SAF hypothesis is nowadays compromised. Recently the IATA director has assessed that the SAF production level will be far too low and has taken to much delay to respond to the avion industry’s demands.
Furthermore, the SAF environmental impact is far from neutral. Its elaboration require high quantities of electricity, water, and the exploitation of the primary biomass jeopardises the forests’ health or competes with food production. The on going projects as E-CHO (for Energy – Carbon Hydrogen Oxygen) in the south west of France, near Pau, incurs the opposition of several local environmental associations (such as Touche pas à ma forêt – Pyrénées)
Hydrogen does not appear either as a credible solution today and is not a priority for Airbus, as we can see with the postponement sine die of the ZEROe project.
Moreover, such technology does only concern the short range aircrafts whose fleet will be replaced slowly and represent a small part of the market (less than 5%).
Up to now, the hydrogen production depends of fossil energies. The “green hydrogen” represents only 1% of the global hydrogen production. Meeting the needs of the aeronautic industry would lead to monopolize an important part of the electric production at the expense of other needs. This raises an issue of democracy and of the common good management. The air transport only concern the richest part of the population (1% of the population is responsible for 50% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 80% of the world population has never flown). To be fair, the mediation of the usage of the energy should take into account the people concerned by the use in order to ensure the air travel social justice.
These observations question the infinite growth storytelling which seems to be the basis of Airbus strategy.
As the CGT union, we have doubts regarding its sustainability. The lack of risks management and the absence of alternatives strategies transfers the adaptation risk on the employees in case of non anticipated downturn (economic crises, climate crisis, new sanitary crisis, new regulations,…)
The analysis of the Airbus SBTi (Science Based Target Initiative, refer to the part 1 of the gazette, link first page) data reveals a material breach : Airbus does not make any commitment regarding a zero net emission scenario and a maximum +1,5°C in 2050.
In the computation models, the non CO2 impact is still not taken into account due to the models or parameters uncertainties.
The scenarios adopted by Airbus, like those presented by ATAG (Air Transport Aviation Group) (report “Waypoint 2050”), are optimistic scenarios that can legitimately be questioned, while the most realistic scenarios show that it is impossible to achieve decarbonisation targets while remaining within the current economic model (GMF at +3.6%, see page 1).
Make up your own mind, use the Aeromaps simulator !
The Aeromaps simulator has been developed by the engineering school Supaero in collaboration with Airbus. This tool enables the analysis of impacts on emissions by adjusting the sector’s transition levers (introduction of new aircraft types and fleet renewal, use of new fuels -biofuels, hydrogen, etc-, air traffic growth rates, etc.).
A sustainable strategy : eat doughnuts, fly under a ceiling, secure employment and preserve the environment
The doughnut economic model allows to measure the sustainability of economic strategies. It incorporates the issues of planetary boundaries and social justice into the economic model. These issues define external limits (planetary boundaries), the ‘ceiling’, and lower limits, the ‘floor’. The latter relate to human rights, the essential needs of each person to ensure their fulfilment.
At the social level, the sustainability of the aviation sector involves several things:
- Improving wages,
- Preserving current and future jobs in the sector,
- Maintaining the right to air transport for certain needs and the need to make polluters pay.
The actual Airbus strategy is based on a traffic infinite growth which do not allow to answer the environment issues (ecological ceiling).
According to the scientists, whatever the technologic improvements (SAF, H2…), only a strategy of reduction of the air traffic can answer to these issues. It will necessarily have a downward impact on the A/C production level. This must not be done at the expense of employees (social foundation of the doughnut): protecting (and even developing) employment is a priority. For the CGT, this is not inevitable: to avoid suffering the consequences, we have to discuss the reduction of air traffic with employees.
Focusing on robustness rather than performance…
Today, Airbus is focusing solely on the GMF (Global Market Forecast, see page 1) and considers that doubling the fleet by 2040 is the only possible scenario. Risk management is being sidelined.
Over the years, Airbus’s decarbonisation ambitions have been scaled back: CO2 emissions in 2024 already exceed the environmental curve (see gazette environment special edition, part 1), ZEROe has been postponed, and SAF production is below forecasts…
It is important to take into account the limitation of air traffic in a gentle manner today, rather than abruptly following environmental disasters (food shortages, water shortages, climate conflicts, pandemics, disasters: cyclones, storms) and/or emergency regulatory constraints.
The Toulouse employment market is heavily dependent on the aeronautics industry. Given the climate crisis and the many economic uncertainties that could undermine Airbus’s current strategy, it would be legitimate to consider alternative strategies to secure employment, such as diversification, refocusing on product value, services, etc.
It is possible to find a new economic balance by exploring avenues such as reducing working hours (to counteract the decline in production levels), increasing aircraft prices, introducing taxes on frequent flyers, reducing dividends (to increase our salaries), etc.
Collectively, we can find solutions that will address both environmental challenges and the sustainability, or even the development of our jobs. This requires a strategic shift from a performance-based paradigm to one based on robustness, which is the only guarantee of sustainability and adaptation to an uncertain world (see the work of biologist Olivier Hamant). Today, the core of our business is aircraft production, which must continue but on a smaller scale. Our expertise allows us to convert a significant portion of our jobs to the energy transition being deployed in other sectors (rail, renewable energies, building adaptation, etc.).
It is up to us to decide our future, not our leaders and shareholders, who are guided solely by short-term profitability and personal gain…
Towards social security for the ecological transition?
The redeployment of some of our jobs requires us to first assess future needs and existing qualifications, then roll out training programmes, while supporting the workers concerned (maintaining salaries, securing job mobility, etc.). To this end, we are campaigning for the establishment of environmental social security, which should be financed by a portion of contributions, as it was the case for COVID, and managed by employees.
This transition is a real opportunity to restore meaning to our work, which is currently in crisis (bullshit jobs, bureaucracy, infantilisation, cognitive dissonance, contradictory orders, etc.).
What role for the employees ?
Today, corporate strategies remain the preserve of employers. If nothing changes, it is the financial logic of shareholder ownership, based on greenwashing and offshoring, that will prevail. The ecological transition, on the other hand, means that employees must be involved in corporate governance.
For the environment, social progress and the future of our companies, nothing will be achieved by supporting and enduring the ‘social dialogue’ touted by management. Their strategies are becoming more radical, even if it means jeopardising companies (as evidenced by the current mass redundancy plans).
That is why we must create the balance of power needed to impose our agenda and counter the one of shareholders, who seek to maintain business as usual, but which may prove fatal in the long run if we do not anticipate early enough the environmental disruption that will be imposed on the aviation sector.
It is by putting pressure on public and private authorities that we can change the rules (laws) and give power back to employees within companies, for example by drawing inspiration from SCOP or SCIC organisations, in which employees are also owners of their companies.
To provide appropriate responses to the environmental crisis, we, the employees of Airbus Aircraft, have a role to play in influencing and encouraging our industry to be more ambitious. We are the first to be affected: this is our work and our jobs, so let’s organise ourselves together.
The CGT union provides the framework and the necessary means to do this. Join us!
CGT Airbus Commercial Aircraft
The sources mentioned in this article are available hereunder :
SAF availability :
https://www.deplacementspros.com/transport/filiere-saf-iata-annonce-des-objectifs-inatteignables
Doughnut economy :
https://www.kateraworth.com/doughnut/
Analyse du projet hydrogène :
https://www.carbone4.com/analyse-airbus-report-avion-hydrogene
La justice sociale du transport aérien :
https://bonpote.com/10-chiffres-a-connaitre-sur-lavion-et-le-climat/
La robustesse :
https://www.eclaira.org/articles/h/la-notion-de-robustesse-pour-interroger-le-modele-de-l-economie-circulaire.html
ICCT : vision 2050, aligning aviation with the Paris Agreement
https://theicct.org/publication/global-aviation-vision-2050-align-aviation-paris-jun22/
ISAE-SUPAERO Aviation and Climate: a litterature review :
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363538880_ISAE-SUPAERO_Aviation_and_Climate_a_literature_review
Réseau action climat, comment réduire le traffic aérien de manière juste et efficace :
https://reseauactionclimat.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/rac-trafic-aerien-web.pdf
New economics foundation : A frequent flying levy in Europe, the moral, economic and legal case :
https://neweconomics.org/2024/10/a-frequent-flying-levy-in-europe